The Yakker

Folks- I have a long history in fantasy baseball and player evaluation, but my loyalty and love of the Toronto Blue Jays dates back even further. Therefore, I am converting this blog to focus on my team at a time when excitement is percolating for a team that longs to remember the early 90s.

Wilson Ramos will be a popular 2011 sleeper.

I’m releasing my first draft of 2011 player rankings. Players who are free agents are listed with their 2010 teams. Players who appear in bold are sleeper candidates.

1. Joe Mauer, Twins
2. Brian McCann, Braves
3. Buster Posey, Giants
4. Victor Martinez, Red Sox
5. Carlos Santana, Indians
6. Matt Wieters, Orioles
7. Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks
8. Geovany Soto, Cubs
9. Kurt Suzuki, Athletics
10. Mike Napoli, Angels
11. Jorge Posasa, Yankees
12. Yadier Molina, Cardinals
13. Russell Martin, Dodgers
14. Miguel Olivo, Rockies
15. John Buck, Jays
16. Bengie Molina, Giants
17. John Jaso, Rays
18. AJ Pierzynski, White Sox
19. Wilson Ramos, Nationals
20. Chris Snyder, Pirates
21. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
22. Ramon Hernandez, Reds
23. Jason Castro, Astros
24. Yorvit Torrealba, Rockies
25. JP Arencibia, Jays
26. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Red Sox
27. Ryan Doumit, Pirates
28. Jason Kendall, Royals
29. Jesus Montero, Yankees
30. Chris Iannetta, Rockies

Bergesen isn't as good as his fans think.

The good news is that Brad Bergesen is probably not battling for a rotation spot after an impressive stretch of outings that includes a 14:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio and just four earned runs over his last 23 innings. The bad news is that, at least for fantasy purposes, he’s not as good as advertised.

His 4.0 dominance rate (K/9ip) and 1.5 command rate (K/BB) leaves quite a bit to be desired and his 2.7 control rate (bb/9ip) is only marginally promising. Many people find some glimmer of hope in the suggestion that he’s a ground ball pitcher, but the reality of it is that is only a mild tendency with a 47% mark on the season. He’s shown some progress over the last month, but that is basically in three starts against AL Central foes (Royals, White Sox, and Indians).

In 42.3 innings against AL Central foes (including Minnesota), Bergesen has gone 2-2 with a 2.34 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 4.0 dom, 2.3 ctl, and 1.7 cmd. Obviously effective, but only a marginal option for fantasy squads. Then consider his numbers this season against the AL East, whom he’ll be facing more often than not down the stretch. In 39 innings, he’s gone 1-6 with a 9.23 ERA, 1.87 WHIP, 6.0 dom, 2.5 ctl, and 2.4 cmd. Those key indicator stats look slightly more promising, but it’s clear he’s being hammered by East foes as a .377 BAA can also attest.

The bottom line is that while it seems like Bergesen is a worthwhile fantasy investment in moderate to deeper leagues, timing can be crucial when it comes to free agent claims. In this case, time is most definitely not on fantasy owners side.

Could Salty be wick'd pissah in Beantown?

Discussion over post-hype prospects has become as commonplace as pontification over top prospects themselves. You don’t need to tell Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein about not overlooking post-hype talent, as he’s had his eye on catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia for longer than arguably any player during his tenure. On July 31 he finally got his guy, trading a pair of minor leaguers (pitcher Roman Mendez and first baseman Chris McGuiness), a player to be named later, and cash to the Texas Rangers for Salty.

Jarrod gives the Sox a much needed left-handed bat in the wake of Kevin Youkilis’ season-ending injury and could provide the long-term answer at catcher, with veterans Jason Varitek and Victor Martinez heading into free agency after the season.

“I’ve had some up and down years,” Saltalamacchia told NESN. “When I heard the news [about coming to Boston] obviously I was excited and thrilled to come over here just to get the opportunity to remake myself.”

In his four major league seasons, Salty has surpassed 300 at bats only once, so it’s a little premature to write off the 25-year old once promising prospect. The only hiccup he had in his minor league career was the result of a lingering wrist injury, as his smooth left-handed swing drove the ball to all fields on a regular basis. While his major deficiency from the perspective of many scouts has been his defense behind the plate, his contact rate (ct%) continues to trend the wrong direction. Elite hitters will have a ct% near 90, but Salty’s has gone from 77-66-66 over the last three years. I’m hopeful that this is a testament to a small sample size and on a team like the Red Sox, he’ll benefit from the guidance of his teammates and coaches. The most important thing to remember is that he’s still years away from that magical emergence age of 27 and he’s just coming into arguably the best opportunity to stake claim on a major league job in his career. I’ll be watching how his late 2010 audition goes and whether or not that puts him on my short list of sleeper catchers in 2011.

Delgado could be as impressive as any young arm that remains in the Braves system.

As I sat down to assemble my current prospect rankings, the guys that piqued my interest the most were the ones I felt the masses knew the least about. One such player was 20-year old Braves pitcher Randall Delgado.

The Braves haven’t shied away from challenging Delgado, sending him to Single-A Rome after a brief stay in the Dominican Summer League and Appalachian League. This is notable because very few players at his age skip Rookie league ball unless they’ve caught the eye of management. How these young players respond to this kind of challenge is often the key factor in determining how high their ceiling is. In that 2009 season, Delgado struggled to a 1-8 record and 5.45 ERA through his first 16 starts before hitting what could be called his first moment of clarity as a professional pitcher. For the first time, he improved his control and finished with an impressive 10.2 K/9IP and 2.9 K/BB ratio.

The guys at Project Prospect do an incredible job at what they do and they have a great write-up on Delgado.

Gammons is to baseball what Aristotle is to philosophy.

Very few people who are in tune with the baseball world miss an entry in Peter Gammons blog, but just to make sure I felt compelled to post this. Today’s entry is a very strong reflection on the volatility of prospects and as a prospect prognosticator it is valuable for us to put ourselves in check every once in a while. Besides that, if a Hall of Famer like Gammons says it, I’m on board with it.

R.A. stands for rancid and atrocious

The Twins acquisition of veteran shortstop Orlando Cabrera is a nice move as he’s clearly better than the options they had in house, but there is one question, “Can he pitch?” After a weekend series with the Angels in which they were outscored 35-15 and outhit 52-30, it was a lackluster effort on all accounts, but clearly one that improved pitching could’ve reduced the damage.

“It seemed like everyone they sent up there had two hits,” Twins first baseman Justin Morneau told the Minneapolis Star Tribune.

That should come as no surprise given the fact the team ERA sits at the high water mark (4.65) since 2000, when they posted a 5.14 ERA on 93-loss squad. “You have to suck it up in this game,” manager Ron Gardenhire said. “No one is going to feel sorry for you. We have to find a way and we have to figure out how to get people out and get the ball where we need to get it. The solutions are few and far between after general manager Bill Smith failed to acquire pitching help at the trading deadline. The first might be wait for a team to pass any veteran starting pitcher through waivers and then put on your negotiating tap shoes to get something done asap. The second and far more likely scenario would be combing through the upper levels of your minor league system for possible help.

A reliever like Anthony Slama could certainly help a bullpen that is clearly overworked and licking it’s wounds. Sure, he hasn’t pitched above Double-A, but a 12.6 dominance rate (K/9IP) and 2.8 command rate (K/BB) suggest that the worst case scenario would be still slightly better than guys like R.A. Dickey and Bobby Keppel. Hell, at least Slama has an idea where his pitches are going when he releases them and no, I’m not referring to the upper deck seats above the right field baggy. Other possible names to watch might include Rob Delaney, Jeff Manship, Armando Gabino, and Phil Humber. None possess the upside of Slama, but again, a worst case scenario is as bad as Dickey and Keppel. Slama has long-term potential in fantasy leagues, but it’s likely a couple more years before he carves out a role at the major league level.

So the Twins stare the postseason in the crosshairs and know what they need to do–find pitching. If they don’t soon, it may be time to schedule a bullpen session for Cabrera.

Liriano is Spanglish for "man who can't pitch."

I trumpeted Francisco Liriano as a guy who would return to breakout form this season and I couldn’t have been more wrong. Now I’m joining the push to get fantasy owners to ignore him altogether. He’s been bothered lately by swelling in his forearm and yet, he claims to feel no pain. The Twins are hurting for quality pitching after Kevin Slowey went down for the season with a wrist injury and it’s clear Liriano isn’t going to provide that boost. It’s tough to see why guys like Rob Delaney and Anthony Slama aren’t called to the majors to booster the bullpen and starters like well, nobody come up to join the rotation. Yes, the Twins couldn’t acquire a starter at the deadline and don’t really have much major-league ready in the upper levels of the minors. I was at the game on Saturday and Twins hurlers (emphasis on hurl) weren’t fooling anyone, so unless recent acqusition, shortstop Orlando Cabrera, can pitch, the rest of the season could wear on Twins fans everywhere.

Baseball's answer to Lebron James

Leading up to the 2009 MLB draft the hype was building surrounding San Diego State hurler Stephen Strasburg. By the time the draft rolled around, it seems almost as though Strasburg would arrive in the Nationals clubhouse and turn sunflower seeds into bread and Gatorade into wine. The hype has begun much earlier for the guy who most experts have as the top pick in the 2010 draft, high school phenom Bryce Harper.

The impressive youngster has the leading role in one of those fables, one in which he reportedly hit a home run 570 feet.

The fine folks at Fan Graphs have a pretty throrough scouting report on Harper and I believe you’ll see someone in your deep keeper fantasy leagues draft him next spring.

Peavy isn't going to like his new home ballpark.

It was a busy day in the AL Central and while the major players all made moves, the one that appears of the highest profile could actually be the one that brings in the least return. The deal I am referring to is the one that sent Jake Peavy to the White Sox for pitchers Clayton Richard, Adam Russell, Dexter Carter, and Aaron Poreda.

The most glaring issue is the tendon Peavy tore in his right ankle in early June. He has progressed in his rehab and could return to the mound sometime in August. While the run support he’ll get from the Pale Hose lineup will be noticeably better, he’ll probably need it.

Obviously the move from Petco and to the American League are two strikes against Peavy. In the NL he gets to face a pitcher once in every nine batters which he’ll no longer get the benefit of in the AL. The change in ballpark is exaggerated by the fact he arrives at one of the most homer friendly ballparks in baseball. This combined with the fact his fly ball ratio has been climbing steadily ever since a career-best mark back in 2006.

Another interesting split is his home versus road ERA, which is 3.58 and 4.60 respectively. This coincidental stat runs parallel to the same split when you consider his career totals. It’s not difficult to anticipate a further slide in his home numbers given the less than nurturing confines of U.S. Cellular Field (his new home).

It seems the debate now is over where Peavy will rank among starting pitchers both this season and beyond. Some experts are debating whether or not he’d be in their top 10 fantasy pitchers next season if he’s 100 percent healthy and I honestly don’t think that is what we should be debating. My opinion on this is far more extreme. In fact, I’ll go on record in saying I would rather have Poreda than Peavy next season. That doesn’t mean Poreda will be among the elite, it simply clarifies the massive collapse I expect from the veteran Peavy.