The Yakker

Just wanted to drop a quick post to let people know that I have posted my TOP 25 PROSPECTS rankings in the prospect page link on the left hand side of this page. Enjoy and as always I look forward to providing more details as to why I ranked the prospects this way and look forward to your feedback.

Pablo has been feasting on NL pitching.

When you spend some time delving deeper into the numbers sometimes some surprising things rise to the surface. After looking at hitters stats FOR THE LAST 30 days, here are some I felt may be interesting to fantasy owners.

• Athletics catcher Kurt Suzuki leads American League backstops in hits, RBI, and total bases and is second in runs.

• Diamondbacks catcher Miguel Montero is third in homers and RBI, second in runs, and leads National League catchers in total bases and hits.

• Royals first baseman Billy Butler has more hits than all AL first basemen not named Miguel Cabrera.

• Braves “utility player” Martin Prado leads NL first basemen in hits and seems poised for a big second half. Last year he hit .327 with two homers, 26 runs, 27 RBI, and two steals in 189 at bats from July through the end of the season.

• Cardinals Skip Schumaker leads NL second basemen in hits and runs.

• Is there a hotter hitter than Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki? Over the last 30 he leads NL shortstops in homers and runs, is second in RBI and total bases, is fourth in steals, and sixth in hits.

• Jays third baseman Scott Rolen may be old, but he leads guys manning the AL hot corner in hits.

• Okay, so maybe it’s Giants third baseman Pablo Sandoval who can challenge Tulowitzki for the hottest hitter award. Over the last 30 days Pablo is first in homers, RBI, hits, and total bases, is fourth in runs, and sixth in steals among NL third basemen.

• Angels outfielder Juan Rivera leads all AL outfielders in long balls.

• Mariners outfielder Franklin Gutierrez is punishing pitchers, leading AL center fielders in homers, RBI, hits, runs, and total bases.

Get used to seeing Halladay in this uniform.

As probably the only loyal Toronto Blue Jays fan in Minnesota for the last 22 years, this week has been a long time coming. The reality that no one is talking about is that it probably still will be. The Jays officially listed Roy Halladay on Major League Baseball’s equivalent to trade market eBay this week and did so half heartedly.

“We’re not going to give the guy away,” general manager J.P. Ricciardi told MLB.com in a phone interview. “We’d be willing to listen. That doesn’t mean we’d be willing to trade.”

Halladay is signed through the 2010 season at a salary not unreasonable for a premium starting pitcher in today’s market (prorated $14.25 million this season and $15.75 mil next season). While the impact a deal might have a team’s farm system would be significant, that is a bargain for anytime looking to shore up their rotation, including the rumored Phillies, Angels, Giants, Dodgers, and Cardinals. But while the number of blog posts since Roy hit the market likely rivals the MIchael Jackson news feeds, I’m not convinced the Jays ace will be dealt this year or this offseason.

Why?

On one level there is the GM’s language the must confuse everyone from the Rogers Centre’s hotdog vendor to the nearest rival GM. Right after seemingly putting him on the market, Ricciardi told MLB.com, “I don’t think anything’s changed, it’s not like we’re moving him.” Beyond this, both Halladay and the Jays have made it clear that they intend to negotiate a contract extension this coming offseason. The bottom line is fantasy owners don’t need to worry about how Doc Halladay’s fantasy value may be affected by a potential relocation. Once the buzz wears off, more analysts will realize this fact.

"Cueto" is spanish for overrated.

There have been some real surprising starts by some otherwise effective to dominant starting pitchers as of late. This has me questioning if it’s time to start worrying about a couple guys we fantasy owners depend on to carry us to the promised land.

JOHAN SANTANA, METS
Santana allowed a mere four earned runs and put up a 0.96 WHIP in 46 innings. It’s been fairly rough ever since. One interesting point is that he’s thrown over 100 pitches in all but four of his last 15 starts, leading one to suggest fatigue may be setting in. You can write off some of this, but a rise in his HR/9IP, in his opponents batting average, and a slide in his dominance rate (K/9IP) should be enough for fantasy owners to take this a bit more seriously.

His numbers over the last few months should be enough warning, as all his peripheral stats have taken a pronounced plunge–particularly his dominance rate, which has fallen from 12.1 to 11.3 to 4.5 in June. Given the incredible numbers over his nine-year career, it’s difficult for some fantasy owners to admit baseball’s formerly most dominant starting pitcher has lost a step, but they need to accept the fact that Venezuela’s finest has eclipsed the 30-year old mark–an age in which the decline in starting pitchers start to decline. It’s important to note that this slide isn’t unique to this season. Over the last three seasons, he’s seen a noticeable decline in his dominance rate (9.4 to 9.7 to 7.9), his strikeout-to-walk rate (5.2 to 4.5 to 3.3), and BB/9IP (1.8 to 2.1 to 2.4). For the first time in recent memory, it’s time fantasy owners consider selling Johan at the first chance that his value rebounds slightly.

JOHNNY CUETO, REDS
The cat may be outta the bag after Cueto’s debacle against the Phillies on Monday in which he retired just two of the 11 batters he faced and couldn’t get out of the first inning after allowing nine earned runs, two homers, and three walks, while striking out one. He’ll still ranks among the top 16 hurlers in the National League in ERA, top six in wins, and top 25 in strikeouts, but his fantasy owners are assuming a great risk by leaving him in their lineup.

There is that great indicator of a falling dominance rate (8.2 in 2008 versus 6.4 in 2009) and his fly ball rate hasn’t improved, which is reason enough to expect Monday’s affinity for the long ball becoming something of a trend-particularly in the hitter-friendly home ballpark in which he plays half his games.

Mejia has front of the rotation potential.

First off I’ll apologize for the minimal frequency for which I’ve been posting. I’m still hectic at the 9-to-5 job and trying to work out a regular posting schedule as well as entice some additional authors to join in the fun. I’ve recently come across a player who I’m extremely excited about and hype is just start to grow around him. I’m referring to 19-year old Mets  pitching prospect, Jenrry Mejia.

Mejia has ascended all the way to Double-A Binghamton, putting up a 4-4 record, 2.50 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 8.5 K/9IP, and nearly a 3.0 K:BB ratio in 68 combined innings at Single and Double-A. All while signing for less than $20k out of the Dominican Republic. There is a terrifc writeup about him over at FanGraphs you should check out, but rest assured he’s going to climb up prospect rankings rapidly if his success continues.

To conclude, Joel Sherman of the NY Post recently asked a scout about Mejia and whether or not he’s the team’s top pitching prospect. To which the response was, “This kid has a muscular, powerful body. There is power to his body. I have no issues with his perceived lack of height. He held his velocity at 95 mph through seven innings. I don’t see him wearing down just because he is not 6-foot-4. He also has a good mound presence. He has a plus changeup, and an average slider and curveball. So he has a change that is very good and his curve might be better than average. He just doesn’t have to use it much right now. So he has two plus pitches, and a couple of average ones. So he starts for me.”

The Twinkies got a steal in Gibson

Major leagues teams are short-sighted.

Major league teams seem to forget about the benefits of modern medicine.

A handful of major league teams will regret they didn’t draft University of Missouri pitcher Kyle Gibson.

I’ll be the first to admit that the depth of my knowledge of the college game is akin to the kiddie pool, but given how touted Gibson was heading into the draft, it seems like an incredible pick for a Twins franchise always overflowing with pitching talent. Prior to an MRI turning up a broken bone in his right forearm, Baseball America ranked him as the fourth best prospect in the draft and made certain they were clear about his significant upside.

BA also pointed out that this is the third time in four years that a U of Missouri pitcher was drafted in the first round (Diamondbacks’ Max Scherzer in 2006 and Aaron Crow in 2008) and they go on to claim it is Gibson who has the greatest upside of the three. The scouting report also calls out the fact that two of his secondary pitches (a sharp 85 mph slider and deceptive fading changeup)  are two of the very best in the entire draft class. If that isn’t enough reason he should’ve gone earlier, consider his easy smooth pitching motion and the fact he throws on a downhill plane–two characteristics scouts drool over in pitching prospects.

Gibson’s agent to be (Randy Rowley) urged his client to distribute copies of the MRI report to calm the rampant reports that the injury would result in Tommy John surgery. Gibson wanted to alleviate concerns and reiterate his determination to succeed at the major league level.

“His character is off the charts,” Missouri coach Tim Jamieson told the Indy Star.  “His work ethic is off the charts. His athleticism is off the charts. He had the package.”The thing that made the difference for him was his willingness to do those things to get stronger, to get better. The only way that happens is through hard work.”

It’s clear that his work ethic combined with him being in one of the best franchise when it comes to pitching development will result in someone fantasy owners will want to pay attention to in coming years.

You can't see me!

ESPN is reporting that Padres ace Jake Peavy will be the newest member of the Chicago White Sox, assuming he decides to waive his no-trade clause. The report indicates that the Padres will receive four players including pitchers Clayton Richard and top pitching prospect Aaron Poreda, but highly anticipated shortstop prospect Gordon Beckham is NOT included in the package.

“Jake called me [Wednesday] afternoon to ask about what it’s like here in Chicago,” former teammate Scott Linebrink told ESPNChicago.com’s Bruce Levine. “I think he’s ready to move on, but I can’t tell you for sure he’s going to accept the deal. Losing 100 games, like they did last year, wears on a player. Right now, I’d say it’s 50-50 as to whether he accepts it or not. He’ll get with his family today and make a decision.”

The Padres are approximately $5 million over the budget set by team owner John Moores, and this deal would obviously help solve that issue since Peavy is due $11 million this season.

The 2007 National League Cy Young winner won the pitching triple crown that year (Wins, Strikeouts, ERA) and has been one of the better pitchers in the NL for much of his eight plus major league seasons. This is partly why he’s always expressed a desire to stay in the same league rather than jump to the American League, but despite there currently being three teams ahead of the Sox in the American League Central, they are only 5.5 games out of first place in a division that clearly seems like almost anyone’s for the taking (sorry Cleveland).

While the best part of this deal is obviously that Peavy won’t be forced to wear those god awful camouflage uniforms, the worst part is clearly the change in home locale.  US Cellular is much, much less forgiving and while he’s always been slightly more of a ground ball pitcher than a fly ball one, his HR/9IP has risen over the last couple seasons. Even if that is due to some elbow soreness he’s dealt with over the last two years.

The bottom line is that I see the best case scenario for Peavy owners being what they are currently getting with an occasional blow up thrown in to keep you honest. I’m really not a fan of the home ballpark and the fact he won’t get the easy free pass in the form of throwing to the opposing pitcher that he got in the NL. Fantasy owners should stay tuned.

EDITORS NOTE: Peavy has decided to exercise his no-trade clause and not join the Chicago White Sox. It seems like just a matter of time until he’s dealt to a team he will accept.

The Phils are phinally turning to Happ.

Whenever a major league team allows Chan Ho Park to waste away in one of their starting rotation spots, a variety of thoughts cross my mind. They aren’t limited to: (A) Mike Maroth wasn’t available, (B) Even Horacio Ramirez got a raise after a 2007 season that ranked among the 13 worst in the history of modern baseball, including a 1.85 WHIP, and (C) there has to be a young prospect with more potential than Park.

Luckily after much deliberation, the Phillies chose (C).

JA Happ has finally seemed to get his game back after an elbow injury dating back to 2007 served as a significant bump in the road. In 21.7 innings so far this season, Happ has gone 2-0 record with a 2.49 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and is certainly a guy fantasy owners should be watching.

Reasons I’d be hesitant to plug him into your lineup immediately include a slight fly-ball tendency and lack of a true out pitch. It’s tough to imagine him being as worthless as Park, but his starting debut against the Yankees this weekend should go a long way towards determining how much long-term value he possesses.

Everything he touches turns to gold.

The fine folks over at Project Prospect did some excellent scouting analysis on soon to be first overall pick, San Diego State pitcher Stephen Strasburg. If you remember Mark Prior’s rapid ascent to the majors after nine minor league starts, it’s easy to see Strasburg making a quicker run through the junior circuit–particularly since he’s likely to be throwing for the Washington Nationals, a team seemingly void of much quality starting pitching.

Don't meddle away with Jo-Jo when you've got Medlen

It’s a misprint right? They meant to call up uber prospect Tommy Hanson to fill Jo-Jo Reyes’ vacated rotation spot. There isn’t a spell checker out there that will auto correct Hanson with Medlen…as in lefty Kris Medlen.

Medlen edged out Hanson narrowly when the Braves needed to make a decision, with a 5-0 record, 0.96 ERA, 10.6 K/9IP, 4.4 K:BB ratio, and .152 BAA in 37.3 innings pitched at Triple-A Gwinnett. To be fair, Hanson was 1-3 with a 1.99 ERA, 12.6 K/9IP, 4.4 K:BB ratio, and a 1.86 BAA in 40.2 IP. At the time of the promotion, Medlen led the International League in ERA and wins (tied) and was sporting a 21-inning scoreless streak.

“This guy has been absolutely dominant,” Braves general manager Frank Wren told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “Also we’re looking at a time window; that’s the other consideration. I think if we were looking at the long haul, and there was a situation for a starter to come up and be a starter for the rest of the season, it would probably be Tommy [Hanson].”

I understand the argument, but it’s at least somewhat flawed.

While Derek Lowe, Jair Jurrjens, and Javier Vazquez have an ERA under 4.00 and WHIP better than 1.35 the lone remaining rotation member (Kenshin Kawakami) has been quite pedestrian to the tune of a 2-4 record, 5.79 ERA, 1.68 WHIP and very modest 1.7 K:BB ratio. If that’s not enough, Braves brass claims the Medlen call-up is merely to bridge the gap until 90-year old Tom Glavine can return from shoulder discomfort. The problem with that is Glavine has no timetable for his return and has conceded that if his shoulder issues don’t subside he won’t hesitate to retire. To me this means that Medlen has an opportunity to stick in the rotation if the results justify it.

“We’re bringing the guy that was throwing the best in AAA,” Wren said. Despite being just 5-10 (small for a starting pitcher) he has a polished, effortless delivery and his durability has never been in question. His success at Triple-A this season shows that his command is starting to improve to the level of his control and his aggressive approach on the mound only serves to make his 94-mph fastball, great curveball, and solid changeup and slider that much more effective. Fantasy owners in deeper mixed leagues with a roster spot wasting away should have Medlen on their radar as he prepares to face the Rockies on Tuesday. One solid start is enough to justify gambling on him.